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Strategy vault / Mean reversion

Reversal and Money Flow Combo Strategy

This strategy combines 123 reversal patterns and money flow indicator to identify trend reversals. Firstly, 123 reversal patterns are used to detect potential reversal points. Specifically, a buy signal is generated…

Author
ChaoZhang
Complexity
Intermediate · 84 lines
Parameters
9
Backtest bar
4h · intraday
Tested on
BTC/USDT · futures

This strategy combines 123 reversal patterns and money flow indicator to identify trend reversals.

Strategy Logic

Firstly, 123 reversal patterns are used to detect potential reversal points. Specifically, a buy signal is generated when prices close down in the first two days and then close up on the third day, with stochastic oscillator below the threshold. A sell signal is generated when prices close up in the first two days and then close down on the third day, with stochastic oscillator above the threshold.

Secondly, fast and slow lines of money flow indicator are calculated. The fast line consists of short period exponential moving average of money flow, while the slow line is longer period EMA. When the fast line is above the slow line, it indicates money inflow and generates a buy signal. The opposite suggests money outflow and generates a sell signal.

Finally, when both the 123 reversal and money flow signals agree, a trading signal is generated.

Advantage Analysis

  • Combining multiple signals improves reliability.
  • 123 reversals detect turning points and money flow indicates fund flows.
  • Parameters can be adjusted for different products and timeframes.
  • Individual signals can also be used independently.

Risk Analysis

  • 123 reversals may generate false signals.
  • Money flow has lagging effect, unable to capture turning points timely.
  • Complex logic with multiple combined signals.
  • Need parameter tuning to prevent overtrading.

Risks can be managed by improving reversal reliability, tuning money flow sensitivity, implementing stop loss, etc.

Optimization Directions

  • Test different parameter sets to find optimal values.
  • Adjust buy/sell thresholds to reduce incorrect trades.
  • Add other technical indicators to improve signal quality.
  • Implement stop loss to control single trade loss.
  • Optimize money management strategies to manage overall risk.

Conclusion

The strategy integrates the advantages of reversal trading and trend following. It can effectively identify market turning points. However, parameter tuning and risk control are necessary to avoid excessive false signals when tracking trends. If used properly, it can become an efficient trading strategy.

Parameters

NameDefaultWhat it controls
v_input_1true---- 123 Reversal ----
v_input_214Length
v_input_3trueKSmoothing
v_input_43DLength
v_input_550Level
v_input_6true---- Money Flow ----
v_input_73Fast
v_input_810Slow
v_input_9falseTrade reverse

Source Pine Script

/*backtest
start: 2023-08-17 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-16 00:00:00
period: 4h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=4
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//  Copyright by HPotter v1.0 24/02/2021
// This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal. 
//
// First strategy
// This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The 
// Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
// The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close 
// during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50. 
// The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price 
// during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
//
// Second strategy
//    Indicator plots Money Flow Indicator (Chaikin). This indicator looks 
//    to improve on Larry William's Accumulation Distribution formula that 
//    compared the closing price with the opening price. In the early 1970's, 
//    opening prices for stocks stopped being transmitted by the exchanges. 
//    This made it difficult to calculate Williams' formula. The Chaikin 
//    Oscillator uses the average price of the bar calculated as follows 
//    (High + Low) /2 instead of the Open.
//    The indicator subtracts a 10 period exponential moving average of the 
//    AccumDist function from a 3 period exponential moving average of the 
//    AccumDist function.  
//
// WARNING:
// - For purpose educate only
// - This script to change bars colors.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Reversal123(Length, KSmoothing, DLength, Level) =>
    vFast = sma(stoch(close, high, low, Length), KSmoothing) 
    vSlow = sma(vFast, DLength)
    pos = 0.0
    pos := iff(close[2] < close[1] and close > close[1] and vFast < vSlow and vFast > Level, 1,
	         iff(close[2] > close[1] and close < close[1] and vFast > vSlow and vFast < Level, -1, nz(pos[1], 0))) 
	pos


MFI(Fast,Slow) =>
    pos = 0.0
    lenMax = max(Fast, Slow)
    lenMin = min(Fast, Slow)
    xDiv = (high - low) * volume
    SumMax = sum(iff(xDiv > 0, (close - open) / (high - low) * volume , 0) , lenMax)
    SumMin = sum(iff(xDiv > 0, (close - open) / (high - low) * volume , 0) , lenMin)
    emaMax = ema(SumMax, lenMax)
    emaMin = ema(SumMin, lenMin)
    nRes = emaMax - emaMin
    pos:= iff(nRes > 0, 1,
           iff(nRes < 0, -1, nz(pos[1], 0))) 
    pos

strategy(title="Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Money Flow Indicator", shorttitle="Combo", overlay = true)
line1 = input(true, "---- 123 Reversal ----")
Length = input(14, minval=1)
KSmoothing = input(1, minval=1)
DLength = input(3, minval=1)
Level = input(50, minval=1)
//-------------------------
line2 = input(true, "---- Money Flow ----")
Fast = input(3, minval=1)
Slow = input(10, minval=1)
reverse = input(false, title="Trade reverse")
posReversal123 = Reversal123(Length, KSmoothing, DLength, Level)
posMFI = MFI(Fast,Slow)
pos = iff(posReversal123 == 1 and posMFI == 1 , 1,
	   iff(posReversal123 == -1 and posMFI == -1, -1, 0)) 
possig = iff(reverse and pos == 1, -1,
          iff(reverse and pos == -1 , 1, pos))	   
if (possig == 1 ) 
    strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
if (possig == -1 )
    strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short)	 
if (possig == 0) 
    strategy.close_all()
barcolor(possig == -1 ? #b50404: possig == 1 ? #079605 : #0536b3 )

Published by ChaoZhang on the FMZ strategy square · last modified 2023-09-17. Collected in the Quant Trading Vault. Unvalidated research: re-test with your own data and costs before trusting it.

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