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Strategy vault / Trend following

Trend Following Strategy Based on EMA Crossover

This article explains in detail a trend following strategy using EMA crossover to generate trading signals. It aims to improve strategy robustness through optimizing moving average parameters. I. Strategy Logic The…

Author
ChaoZhang
Complexity
Starter · 74 lines
Parameters
4
Backtest bar
1h · intraday
Tested on
BTC/USDT · futures

This article explains in detail a trend following strategy using EMA crossover to generate trading signals. It aims to improve strategy robustness through optimizing moving average parameters.

I. Strategy Logic

The core rules are:

  1. Set up fast EMA and slow EMA, with fast EMA for price change sensitivity and slow EMA for trend.

  2. Go long on fast EMA crossover above slow EMA, and go short on crossover below.

  3. Set EMA ratio where slow period ≥ 3 times fast period, to reduce false signals.

  4. Option for long only mode to avoid counter-trend trades.

  5. Customizable backtest period for parameter optimization.

By tuning EMA parameters, sensitivity and stability can be balanced to capitalize on trends.

II. Advantages of the Strategy

The biggest advantage is simplicity for ease of use, suitable for time-constrained traders.

Another advantage is the ability to reduce whipsaws through parameter optimization.

Lastly, long only mode avoids counter-trend trades and fits certain markets like stocks.

III. Potential Weaknesses

However, some issues exist:

Firstly, EMAs inherently have lagging issues, causing missed optimal entries.

Secondly, improper settings may over-filter causing missed trades.

Finally, stop loss and take profit mechanisms need improvements.

IV. Summary

In summary, this article has explained a trend following strategy based on EMA crossovers. It aims to improve robustness by tuning EMA parameters. With simple and clear rules, it is easy to implement but risks like EMA lag need prevention.

Parameters

NameDefaultWhat it controls
v_input_12020Backtest Start Year
v_input_220Length
v_input_30Multiplier (3x length, 4x length, etc): 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10
v_input_4falseLong Only

Source Pine Script

/*backtest
start: 2023-08-15 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-12 00:00:00
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=4
// 
// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © gregoirejohnb
//
// Moving average crossover systems measure drift in the market. They are great strategies for time-limited people.
// So, why don't more people use them?
// 
// I think it's due to poor choice in choosing EMA lengths: Market Wizard Ed Seykota has a guideline for moving average crossovers: the slow line should be at least 3x the fast line.
// This removes a lot of the whipsaws inherent in moving average systems, which means greater profitability.
// His other piece of advice: long-only strategies are best in stock markets where there's a lot more upside potential.
//
// Using these simple rules, we can reduce a lot of the whipsaws and low profitability trades! This strategy was made so you can see for yourself before trading.
//
// === HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR ===
// 1) Choose your market and timeframe.
// 2) Choose the length.
// 3) Choose the multiplier.
// 4) Choose if the strategy is long-only or bidirectional. 
//
// Don't overthink the above! We don't know the best answers, that's why this strategy exists! We're going to test and find out.
//  After you find a good combination, set up an alert system with the default Exponential Moving Average indicators provided by TradingView.
//
// === TIPS ===
// Increase the multiplier to reduce whipsaws (back and forth trades).
// Increase the length to take fewer trades, decrease the length to take more trades.
// Try a Long-Only strategy to see if that performs better.
//
strategy(title="EMA Crossover Strategy", shorttitle="EMA COS", overlay=true, pyramiding=0, default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value=10, currency=currency.USD,commission_type=strategy.commission.percent,commission_value=0.1)

// === GENERAL INPUTS ===
//strategy start date
start_year = input(defval=2020, title="Backtest Start Year")

// === LOGIC ===
length = input(type=input.integer,defval=20,minval=1,title="Length")
ratio = input(type=input.integer,defval=3,title="Multiplier (3x length, 4x length, etc)",options=[3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10])
longOnly = input(type=input.bool,defval=false,title="Long Only")
fast = ema(hl2,length)
slow = ema(hl2,length * ratio)
plot(fast,linewidth=2,color=color.orange,title="Fast")
plot(slow,linewidth=2,color=color.blue,title="Slow")

longEntry = crossover(fast,slow)
shortEntry = crossunder(fast,slow)

plotshape(longEntry ? close : na,style=shape.triangleup,color=color.green,location=location.belowbar,size=size.small,title="Long Triangle")
plotshape(shortEntry and not longOnly ? close : na,style=shape.triangledown,color=color.red,location=location.abovebar,size=size.small,title="Short Triangle")
plotshape(shortEntry and longOnly ? close : na,style=shape.xcross,color=color.black,location=location.abovebar,size=size.small,title="Exit Sign")

// === STRATEGY - LONG POSITION EXECUTION ===
enterLong() =>
    crossover(fast,slow) and 
       time > timestamp(start_year, 1, 1, 01, 01)
exitLong() =>
    longOnly and crossunder(fast,slow)
strategy.entry(id="Long", long=strategy.long, when=enterLong())
strategy.close(id="Long", when=exitLong())
// === STRATEGY - SHORT POSITION EXECUTION ===
enterShort() =>
    not longOnly and crossunder(fast,slow) and 
       time > timestamp(start_year, 1, 1, 01, 01)
exitShort() =>
    false
strategy.entry(id="Short", long=strategy.short, when=enterShort())
strategy.close(id="Short", when=exitShort())

Published by ChaoZhang on the FMZ strategy square · last modified 2023-09-15. Collected in the Quant Trading Vault. Unvalidated research: re-test with your own data and costs before trusting it.

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