Combo Trend Reversal Moving Average Crossover Strategy

This is a combo strategy that combines trend reversal and moving average crossover strategies to generate more accurate trading signals.

Pine ScriptMean reversion Trend following Machine learning SMA Stochastic

Author: ChaoZhang
Complexity: Intermediate · 77 lines
Parameters: 11
Backtest bar: 1h · intraday
Tested on: BTC/USDT · futures

Jump to code View in vault Original on FMZ

Overview

This is a combo strategy that combines trend reversal and moving average crossover strategies to generate more accurate trading signals.

Strategy Logic

The strategy consists of two parts:

123 Reversal Strategy: Go long when close price rises for 2 consecutive days and 9-day slow stochastic is below 50; Go short when close price falls for 2 consecutive days and 9-day fast stochastic is above 50.
Bill Williams Average Strategy: Calculate 13, 8 and 5 days median price moving averages and go long when faster MAs cross above slower MAs; Go short when faster MAs cross below slower MAs.

Finally, an actual trading signal is generated only when both strategies agree on the direction; otherwise no trade.

Advantage Analysis

The combo strategy filters noise using dual trend validations, thus improving signal accuracy. Additionally, moving averages filter out some noise.

Risk Analysis

Risks are:

Dual filter may miss some good trades
Wrong MA settings may incorrectly judge trends
Reversal strategies itself have loss risks

Risks can be reduced by optimizing MA parameters or entry/exit logic.

Optimization Directions

The strategy can be optimized by:

Testing different MA combinations to find optimal parameters
Adding stop loss to limit losses
Incorporating volume to identify signal quality
Using machine learning to auto optimize

Conclusion

This strategy combines dual trend filters and MAs to effectively filter noises and improve decision accuracy. But risks exist, which need continuous optimization of logic before stable profitability.

Parameters

Name	Default	What it controls
v_input_1	14	Length
v_input_2	true	KSmoothing
v_input_3	3	DLength
v_input_4	50	Level
v_input_5	13	LLength
v_input_6	8	MLength
v_input_7	5	SLength
v_input_8	8	LOffset
v_input_9	5	MOffset
v_input_10	3	SOffset
v_input_11	false	Trade reverse

Source Pine Script

/*backtest
start: 2023-10-28 00:00:00
end: 2023-11-27 00:00:00
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

//@version=3
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
//  Copyright by HPotter v1.0 18/06/2019
// This is combo strategies for get 
// a cumulative signal. Result signal will return 1 if two strategies 
// is long, -1 if all strategies is short and 0 if signals of strategies is not equal.
//
// First strategy
// This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The 
// Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
// The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close 
// during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50. 
// The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price 
// during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
//
// Second strategy
// This indicator calculates 3 Moving Averages for default values of
// 13, 8 and 5 days, with displacement 8, 5 and 3 days: Median Price (High+Low/2).
// The most popular method of interpreting a moving average is to compare 
// the relationship between a moving average of the security's price with 
// the security's price itself (or between several moving averages).
//
// WARNING:
// - For purpose educate only
// - This script to change bars colors.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Reversal123(Length, KSmoothing, DLength, Level) =>
    vFast = sma(stoch(close, high, low, Length), KSmoothing) 
    vSlow = sma(vFast, DLength)
    pos = 0.0
    pos := iff(close[2] < close[1] and close > close[1] and vFast < vSlow and vFast > Level, 1,
	         iff(close[2] > close[1] and close < close[1] and vFast > vSlow and vFast < Level, -1, nz(pos[1], 0))) 
	pos

BillWilliamsAverages(LLength, MLength,SLength, LOffset,MOffset, SOffset ) =>
    xLSma = sma(hl2, LLength)[LOffset]
    xMSma = sma(hl2, MLength)[MOffset]
    xSSma = sma(hl2, SLength)[SOffset]
    pos = 0
    pos := iff(close < xSSma and xSSma < xMSma and xMSma < xLSma, -1,
    	   iff(close > xSSma and xSSma > xMSma and xMSma > xLSma, 1, nz(pos[1], 0))) 
    pos

strategy(title="Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Bill Williams Averages. 3Lines", shorttitle="Combo", overlay = true)
Length = input(14, minval=1)
KSmoothing = input(1, minval=1)
DLength = input(3, minval=1)
Level = input(50, minval=1)
//-------------------------
LLength = input(13, minval=1)
MLength = input(8,minval=1)
SLength = input(5,minval=1)
LOffset = input(8,minval=1)
MOffset = input(5,minval=1)
SOffset = input(3,minval=1)
reverse = input(false, title="Trade reverse")
posReversal123 = Reversal123(Length, KSmoothing, DLength, Level)
posBillWilliamsAverages = BillWilliamsAverages(LLength, MLength,SLength, LOffset, MOffset, SOffset)
pos = iff(posReversal123 == 1 and posBillWilliamsAverages == 1 , 1,
	   iff(posReversal123 == -1 and posBillWilliamsAverages == -1, -1, 0)) 
possig = iff(reverse and pos == 1, -1,
          iff(reverse and pos == -1, 1, pos))	   
if (possig == 1) 
    strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
if (possig == -1)
    strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short)	 
if (possig == 0) 
    strategy.close_all()
barcolor(possig == -1 ? red: possig == 1 ? green : blue )

Published by ChaoZhang on the FMZ strategy square · last modified 2023-11-28. Collected in the Quant Trading Vault. Unvalidated research: re-test with your own data and costs before trusting it.

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