Strategy vault / Trend following
Compound Trend Following Strategy
This article introduces a quantitative trading strategy that combines multiple indicators to determine trends. It tracks medium-to-long term price trends using moving averages, new highs/lows, yearly levels and more.
Overview
This article introduces a quantitative trading strategy that combines multiple indicators to determine trends. It tracks medium-to-long term price trends using moving averages, new highs/lows, yearly levels and more.
Strategy Logic
The strategy is based on:
Using moving averages, new highs/lows index to determine price trend.
Incorporating yearly levels to avoid short-term whipsaws.
Entering on aligned indicator bundle signals to filter fakeouts.
Trailing with supertrend to lock in trend profits.
Stopping out on moving average breaches.
Advantage Analysis
Advantages of the strategy:
Multiple indicators improve decision accuracy.
Only trading clear trends avoids unnecessary trades.
Supertrend trailing locks in profits and reduces drawdowns.
Timely stop outs on breakouts improve win rate.
Clear logic makes optimization intuitive.
Risk Analysis
Potential risks include:
Multiple filters may cause missed trades.
Supertrend trails could overly limit profits.
Bad breakout stops cause unnecessary exits.
Parameter tuning significantly impacts performance.
Conclusion
This strategy combines multiple technical indicators to determine trend. With proper optimization, it can achieve good returns. But traders should watch trend accuracy and adjust parameters accordingly.
Parameters
| Name | Default | What it controls |
|---|---|---|
| v_input_1 | 0 | Moving Average Type: hma | sma | ema | rma | vwma | wma |
| v_input_2 | true | includePartiallyAligned |
| v_input_3 | 22 | HighLowPeriod |
| v_input_4 | 10 | LookbackPeriod |
| v_input_5 | false | considerYearlyHighLow |
| v_input_6 | true | dirTBars |
| v_input_7 | 30 | dirRBars |
| v_input_8 | 0 | Moving Average Type: ema | sma | hma | rma | vwma | wma |
| v_input_9 | 10 | PMALength |
| v_input_10 | 2 | shift |
| v_input_11 | 3 | supertrendMult |
| v_input_12 | 22 | supertrendLength |
| v_input_13 | 2 | riskReward |
| v_input_14 | 0 | Trade Direction: strategy.openMA<closeMA?1:-1.all | strategy.direction.long | strategy.direction.short |
| v_input_15 | true | backtestYears |
Source Pine Script
/*backtest
start: 2023-08-16 00:00:00
end: 2023-09-15 00:00:00
period: 1h
basePeriod: 15m
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/
// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © HeWhoMustNotBeNamed
//@version=4
strategy("AlignedMA and Cumulative HighLow Strategy V2", overlay=true, initial_capital = 1000, default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value = 100, commission_type = strategy.commission.percent, pyramiding = 1, commission_value = 0.01, calc_on_order_fills = true)
MAType = input(title="Moving Average Type", defval="hma", options=["ema", "sma", "hma", "rma", "vwma", "wma"])
includePartiallyAligned = input(true)
HighLowPeriod = input(22, minval=1,step=1)
LookbackPeriod = input(10, minval=1,step=1)
considerYearlyHighLow = input(false)
dirTBars = input(1)
dirRBars = input(30)
PMAType = input(title="Moving Average Type", defval="ema", options=["ema", "sma", "hma", "rma", "vwma", "wma"])
PMALength = input(10, minval=2, step=10)
shift = input(2, minval=1, step=1)
//Use 2 for ASX stocks
supertrendMult = input(3, minval=1, maxval=10, step=0.5)
supertrendLength = input(22, minval=1)
riskReward = input(2, minval=1, maxval=10, step=0.5)
tradeDirection = input(title="Trade Direction", defval=strategy.direction.all, options=[strategy.direction.all, strategy.direction.long, strategy.direction.short])
backtestYears = input(1, minval=1, step=1)
f_getMovingAverage(source, MAType, length)=>
ma = sma(source, length)
if(MAType == "ema")
ma := ema(source,length)
if(MAType == "hma")
ma := hma(source,length)
if(MAType == "rma")
ma := rma(source,length)
if(MAType == "vwma")
ma := vwma(source,length)
if(MAType == "wma")
ma := wma(source,length)
ma
f_getMaAlignment(MAType, includePartiallyAligned)=>
ma5 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,5)
ma10 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,10)
ma20 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,20)
ma30 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,30)
ma50 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,50)
ma100 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,100)
ma200 = f_getMovingAverage(close,MAType,200)
upwardScore = 0
upwardScore := close > ma5? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
upwardScore := ma5 > ma10? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
upwardScore := ma10 > ma20? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
upwardScore := ma20 > ma30? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
upwardScore := ma30 > ma50? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
upwardScore := ma50 > ma100? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
upwardScore := ma100 > ma200? upwardScore+1:upwardScore
upwards = close > ma5 and ma5 > ma10 and ma10 > ma20 and ma20 > ma30 and ma30 > ma50 and ma50 > ma100 and ma100 > ma200
downwards = close < ma5 and ma5 < ma10 and ma10 < ma20 and ma20 < ma30 and ma30 < ma50 and ma50 < ma100 and ma100 < ma200
upwards?1:downwards?-1:includePartiallyAligned ? (upwardScore > 5? 0.5: upwardScore < 2?-0.5:upwardScore>3?0.25:-0.25) : 0
f_getHighLowValue(HighLowPeriod)=>
currentHigh = highest(high,HighLowPeriod) == high
currentLow = lowest(low,HighLowPeriod) == low
currentHigh?1:currentLow?-1:0
f_getDirection(Series)=>
direction = Series > Series[1] ? 1 : Series < Series[1] ? -1 : 0
direction := direction == 0? nz(direction[1],0):direction
direction
f_getDirectionT(Series, tBars, rBars)=>
compH = Series > 0? Series[tBars] : Series[rBars]
compL = Series < 0? Series[tBars] : Series[rBars]
direction = Series > compH ? 1 : Series < compL ? -1 : 0
direction := direction == 0? nz(direction[1],0):direction
direction
f_getYearlyHighLowCondition(considerYearlyHighLow)=>
yhigh = security(syminfo.tickerid, '12M', high[1])
ylow = security(syminfo.tickerid, '12M', low[1])
yhighlast = yhigh[365]
ylowlast = ylow[365]
yhighllast = yhigh[2 * 365]
ylowllast = ylow[2 * 365]
yearlyTrendUp = na(yhigh)? true : na(yhighlast)? close > yhigh : na(yhighllast)? close > max(yhigh,yhighlast) : close > max(yhigh, min(yhighlast, yhighllast))
yearlyHighCondition = ( (na(yhigh) or na(yhighlast) ? true : (yhigh > yhighlast) ) and ( na(yhigh) or na(yhighllast) ? true : (yhigh > yhighllast))) or yearlyTrendUp or not considerYearlyHighLow
yearlyTrendDown = na(ylow)? true : na(ylowlast)? close < ylow : na(ylowllast)? close < min(ylow,ylowlast) : close < min(ylow, max(ylowlast, ylowllast))
yearlyLowCondition = ( (na(ylow) or na(ylowlast) ? true : (ylow < ylowlast) ) and ( na(ylow) or na(ylowllast) ? true : (ylow < ylowllast))) or yearlyTrendDown or not considerYearlyHighLow
[yearlyHighCondition,yearlyLowCondition]
f_getOpenCloseMA(MAType, length)=>
openMA = f_getMovingAverage(open, MAType, length)
closeMA = f_getMovingAverage(close, MAType, length)
direction = openMA < closeMA ? 1 : -1
[openMA, closeMA, direction]
inDateRange = true
maAlignment = f_getMaAlignment(MAType,includePartiallyAligned)
alignedMaIndex = sum(maAlignment,LookbackPeriod)
maAlignmentDirection=f_getDirectionT(alignedMaIndex,dirTBars, dirRBars)
atr = atr(22)
highLowIndex = f_getHighLowValue(HighLowPeriod)
cumulativeHighLowIndex = sum(highLowIndex,LookbackPeriod)
hlDirection = f_getDirectionT(cumulativeHighLowIndex,dirTBars,dirRBars)
[yearlyHighCondition,yearlyLowCondition] = f_getYearlyHighLowCondition(considerYearlyHighLow)
[supertrend, dir] = supertrend(supertrendMult, supertrendLength)
[esupertrend, edir] = supertrend(supertrendMult+1, supertrendLength)
movingAverage = f_getMovingAverage(close, PMAType, PMALength)
secondaryBuyFilter = movingAverage > movingAverage[shift]
secondarySellFilter = movingAverage < movingAverage[shift]
closeBuyFilter = dir == 1
closeSellFilter = dir == -1
buyFilter = (maAlignmentDirection == 1 and hlDirection == 1 and yearlyHighCondition)
sellFilter = (maAlignmentDirection == -1 and hlDirection == -1 and yearlyLowCondition)
barColor = buyFilter?color.lime:sellFilter?color.orange:color.gray
bandColor = secondaryBuyFilter ? color.green : secondarySellFilter ? color.red : color.gray
compound = strategy.position_size > 0? strategy.position_avg_price + (atr* supertrendMult * riskReward) : strategy.position_size < 0 ? strategy.position_avg_price - (atr* supertrendMult * riskReward) : na
riskFree = na(compound)?false:strategy.position_size > 0 ? supertrend > compound : strategy.position_size < 0 ? supertrend < compound : false
trailingStop = riskFree?(dir==-1?supertrend - 2*atr : supertrend + 2*atr) :supertrend
trailingStop := (strategy.position_size > 0 and trailingStop < trailingStop[1]) ? trailingStop[1] : ((strategy.position_size < 0 and trailingStop > trailingStop[1])? trailingStop[1] :trailingStop)
plot(trailingStop, title="Supertrend", color=riskFree? color.blue:dir==-1?color.green:color.red, linewidth=2)
buyEntry = buyFilter and secondaryBuyFilter and not closeBuyFilter and low > trailingStop
sellEntry = sellFilter and secondarySellFilter and not closeSellFilter and low < trailingStop
Fi1 = plot(movingAverage[shift], title="MA", color=color.red, linewidth=1, transp=50)
Fi2 = plot(movingAverage, title="Shift", color=color.green, linewidth=1, transp=50)
fill(Fi1, Fi2, title="Band Filler", color=bandColor, transp=40)
barcolor(barColor)
//plot(compound, title="Compound"mzn, color=dir==-1?color.lime:color.orange, linewidth=2)
strategy.risk.allow_entry_in(tradeDirection)
strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long, when=buyEntry and inDateRange and (riskFree or strategy.position_size==0), oca_name="oca_buy")
strategy.exit("ExitBuy", "Buy", stop = trailingStop)
strategy.close("Buy", when=closeBuyFilter)
strategy.entry("Sell", strategy.short, when=sellEntry and inDateRange and (riskFree or strategy.position_size==0), oca_name="oca_sell")
strategy.exit("ExitSell", "Buy", stop = trailingStop)
strategy.close("Sell", when=closeSellFilter)
Published by ChaoZhang on the FMZ strategy square · last modified 2023-09-16. Collected in the Quant Trading Vault. Unvalidated research: re-test with your own data and costs before trusting it.
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