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Strategy vault / Machine learning

Python Machine Learning SVM Predicting Buying and Selling

PythonBeginner simple strategy: using the sklearn machine learning library The libraries that come with the backtesting system include numpy pandas TA-Lib scipy statsmodels sklearn cvxopt hmmlearn pykalman arch…

Author
Zero
Complexity
Intermediate · 96 lines
Parameters
1

PythonBeginner simple strategy: using the sklearn machine learning library

The libraries that come with the backtesting system include numpy pandas TA-Lib scipy statsmodels sklearn cvxopt hmmlearn pykalman arch matplotlib

For live trading, the libraries required by the strategy need to be installed on the host machine

Parameters

NameDefaultWhat it controls
SpreadVal2Forecast spread

Source Python

'''backtest
start: 2019-09-06 00:00:00
end: 2019-10-05 00:00:00
period: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Bitfinex","currency":"BTC_USD"}]
'''

from sklearn import svm
import numpy as np

def main():
    preTime = 0
    n = 0
    success = 0
    predict = None
    pTime = None
    marketPosition = 0
    initAccount = exchange.GetAccount()
    Log("Running...")
    while True:
        r = exchange.GetRecords()
        if len(r) < 60:
            continue
        bar = r[len(r)-1]
        if bar.Time > preTime:
            preTime = bar.Time
            if pTime is not None and r[len(r)-2].Time == pTime:
                diff = r[len(r)-2].Close - r[len(r)-3].Close
                if diff > SpreadVal:
                    success += 1 if predict == 0 else 0
                elif diff < -SpreadVal:
                    success += 1 if predict == 1 else 0
                else:
                    success += 1 if predict == 2 else 0
                pTime = None
                LogStatus("Number of Predictions", n, "Number of Successes", success, "Accuracy.":", '%.3f %%' % round(float(success) * 100 / n, 2))
        else:
            Sleep(1000)
            continue
        inputs_X, output_Y = [], []
        sets = [None, None, None]
        for i in xrange(1, len(r)-2, 1):
            inputs_X.append([r[i].Open, r[i].Close])
            Y = 0
            diff = r[i+1].Close - r[i].Close
            if diff > SpreadVal:
                Y = 0
                sets[0] = True
            elif diff < -SpreadVal:
                Y = 1
                sets[1] = True
            else:
                Y = 2
                sets[2] = True
            output_Y.append(Y)
        if None in sets:
            Log("Insufficient samples, Unpredictable ...")
            continue
        n += 1
        clf = svm.LinearSVC()
        clf.fit(inputs_X, output_Y)
        predict = clf.predict(np.array([bar.Open, bar.Close]).reshape((1, -1)))[0]
        pTime = bar.Time
        Log("Predict currentBarEnd:", bar.Time, ['rise', 'fall', 'horizontal'][predict])
        if marketPosition == 0:
            if predict == 0:
                exchange.Buy(-1, initAccount.Balance/2)
                marketPosition = 1
            elif predict == 1:
                exchange.Sell(-1, initAccount.Stocks/2)
                marketPosition = -1
        else:
            nowAccount = exchange.GetAccount()
            if marketPosition > 0 and predict != 0:
                exchange.Sell(-1, nowAccount.Stocks - initAccount.Stocks)
                nowAccount = exchange.GetAccount()
                marketPosition = 0
            elif marketPosition < 0 and predict != 1:
                while True:
                    dif = initAccount.Stocks - nowAccount.Stocks
                    if dif < 0.01:
                        break
                    ticker = exchange.GetTicker()
                    exchange.Buy(ticker.Sell + (ticker.Sell-ticker.Buy)*2, dif)
                    while True:
                        Sleep(1000)
                        orders = exchange.GetOrders()
                        for order in orders:
                            exchange.CancelOrder(order.Id)
                        if len(orders) == 0:
                            break
                    nowAccount = exchange.GetAccount()
                marketPosition = 0
            if marketPosition == 0:
                LogProfit(_N(nowAccount.Balance - initAccount.Balance, 4), nowAccount)
                

Published by Zero on the FMZ strategy square · last modified 2019-10-06. Collected in the Quant Trading Vault. Unvalidated research: re-test with your own data and costs before trusting it.

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