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Strategy vault / Trend following

Dynamic MA Crossover Trend Following Strategy

This strategy uses the crossover of dynamic resistance/support bands and MA lines as entry signals, and adopts trend following stops to lock in profits.

Author
ChaoZhang
Complexity
Intermediate · 174 lines
Parameters
13
Backtest bar
1d · swing
Tested on
BTC/USDT · futures

IMG

Overview

This strategy uses the crossover of dynamic resistance/support bands and MA lines as entry signals, and adopts trend following stops to lock in profits.

Strategy Logic

  1. Calculate dynamic resistance and support levels using percentile statistics to identify potential reversal zones.

  2. When price enters the reversal zone, check if fast MA crosses over/under slow MA to generate trading signals.

  3. After entry, start trailing stop mechanism to lock in profits dynamically and follow the trend.

  4. When price hits predefined stop loss or take profit levels, close positions.

Advantages

  1. Dynamic bands help identify potential reversal areas and improve entry accuracy.

  2. Combining MA crossover and percentile channel avoids false signals.

  3. Trailing stop locks in profits effectively and prevents excessive drawdowns.

  4. Customizable parameters suit different market environments.

Risks

  1. False signals may occur in non-trending markets.

  2. Overly aggressive entries due to improper parameter tuning.

  3. Backtest data should cover sufficient market cycles.

  4. Consider wider stops in live trading to prevent gaps.

Enhancement

  1. Test different MA periods combinations.

  2. Optimize reversal identification by adjusting dynamic bands parameters.

  3. Evaluate impacts on equity curve from different trailing stop parameters.

  4. Try adding filters to improve reliability.

Conclusion

The overall logic of this strategy is clear. It uses dynamic bands to filter signals, judges trend direction by MA crossover, and effectively controls risk with trailing stop mechanism. Further optimization through parameter tuning can continuously improve strategy performance for production.

Parameters

NameDefaultWhat it controls
v_input_10Trade Type : BOTH | SHORT | LONG
v_input_22017From Year
v_input_39999To Year
v_input_4trueStop Loss Percent
v_input_53.5Profit Percent LONG
v_input_63Profit Percent SHORT
v_input_71.5ATR Multiple for PT
v_input_81.5ATR Multiple for SL
v_input_9128DZ Length
v_input_1040Hi is Above X% of Sample
v_input_1160Lo is Below X% of Sample
v_input_125DMA16 Resolution
v_input_13trueUse DZ SL

Source Pine Script

/*backtest
start: 2022-12-12 00:00:00
end: 2023-12-18 00:00:00
period: 1d
basePeriod: 1h
exchanges: [{"eid":"Futures_Binance","currency":"BTC_USDT"}]
*/

// This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/
// © allanster

//@version=4

strategy("MA-EMA Crossover LT", shorttitle="MA-EMA XO", overlay=true)


//==================== STRATEGY CODE ======================

tradeType = input("BOTH", title="Trade Type ", options=["LONG", "SHORT", "BOTH"])

// === BACKTEST RANGE ===
FromMonth = 01//input(defval=01, title="From Month", minval=1)
FromDay = 01//input(defval=01, title="From Day", minval=1)
FromYear = input(defval=2017, title="From Year", minval=2000)
ToMonth = 12//input(defval=12, title="To Month", minval=1)
ToDay = 31//input(defval=31, title="To Day", minval=1)
ToYear = input(defval=9999, title="To Year", minval=2000)

testPeriod() =>
    time > timestamp(FromYear, FromMonth, FromDay, 00, 00) and 
       time < timestamp(ToYear, ToMonth, ToDay, 23, 59)

stopLossPercent = input(1.00, "Stop Loss Percent")
profitPercent_long = input(3.50, "Profit Percent LONG")
profitPercent_short = input(3.0, "Profit Percent SHORT")

atr_multi_PT = input(1.50, "ATR Multiple for PT")
atr_multi_SL = input(1.50, "ATR Multiple for SL")
//////////////////////////////

isLongOpen = false
isShortOpen = false

//Order open on previous ticker?
isLongOpen := nz(isLongOpen[1])
isShortOpen := nz(isShortOpen[1])

/////////////////////
//Trailing and Profit variables
trigger = 0.0
trigger := na

profitTrigger = 0.0
profitTrigger := na

//obtain values from last ticker
entryPrice = 0.0
entryPrice := nz(entryPrice[1])

stopLossLevel = 0.0
stopLossLevel := nz(stopLossLevel[1])

profitPriceLevel = 0.0
profitPriceLevel := nz(profitPriceLevel[1])


//If in active trade, lets load with current value    
if isLongOpen
    profitTrigger := profitPriceLevel ? high : na
    trigger := stopLossLevel ? ohlc4 : na
    trigger
if isShortOpen
    profitTrigger := profitPriceLevel ? low : na
    trigger := stopLossLevel ? ohlc4 : na
    trigger

isStopLoss = isLongOpen ? trigger < stopLossLevel : 
   isShortOpen ? trigger > stopLossLevel : na
isProfitCatch = isLongOpen ? profitTrigger > profitPriceLevel : 
   isShortOpen ? profitTrigger < profitPriceLevel : na

//===================      Optional Entry Condition    ============
src    = close
len = input(defval = 128, title = "DZ Length", type = input.integer, minval = 1)
// use_dz = input(false, title="Use Dynamic Zone")
pcntAbove = input(defval = 40, title = "Hi is Above X% of Sample", type = input.float, minval = 0, maxval = 100, step = 1.0)
pcntBelow = input(defval = 60, title = "Lo is Below X% of Sample", type = input.float, minval = 0, maxval = 100, step = 1.0)

smplAbove = percentile_nearest_rank(src, len, pcntAbove)
smplBelow = percentile_nearest_rank(src, len, 100 - pcntBelow)

above     = plot(src > smplAbove ? src : smplAbove, title = "Above Line", color = na)
probOB    = plot(smplAbove, title = "OB", color = color.green)
probOS    = plot(smplBelow, title = "OS", color = color.red)
below     = plot(src < smplBelow ? src : smplBelow, title = "Below Line", color = na)
fill(above,  probOB, color = #00FF00, transp = 80)
fill(below,  probOS, color = #FF0000, transp = 80)

// long_dz = close > smplAbove
// short_dz = close < smplBelow


//==============           Entry Conditions        =====================
timeframe = input("5D", title="MA16 Resolution", type=input.resolution)
_ma = sma(hlc3, 16)
ma=security(syminfo.tickerid, timeframe, _ma, barmerge.gaps_off, barmerge.lookahead_on)

_ema=ema(hlc3,7)
ema=security(syminfo.tickerid, timeframe, _ema, barmerge.gaps_off, barmerge.lookahead_on)


long = ma[1] > ema[1] ? crossover(ema, ma) : abs(ma - ema)/ma > 0.025 ? crossover(close, ema) : false
short = ma[1] < ema[1] ? crossunder(ema,ma) : abs(ma - ema)/ma > 0.025 ? crossunder(close, ema): false //:crossunder(close, ema) 

longEntry = (tradeType == "LONG" or tradeType == "BOTH") and long
shortEntry = (tradeType == "SHORT" or tradeType == "BOTH") and short

//Upon Entry, do this.
if longEntry or shortEntry
    entryPrice := ohlc4
    entryPrice

//set price points for new orders
use_dz_sl = input(true, title="Use DZ SL")
if isLongOpen 
    stopLossLevel := use_dz_sl? max(smplAbove, ma) : ema - 0.25*atr_multi_PT* atr(32) //ma
    profitTrail = ma + atr_multi_PT* atr(32)
    profitPriceLevel :=  max( (1 + 0.01 * profitPercent_long) * entryPrice, profitTrail)
    profitPriceLevel
if isShortOpen 
    stopLossLevel :=  use_dz_sl? min(smplBelow, ma) : ema + 0.25*atr_multi_PT* atr(32) //ma
    profitTrail = ma - atr_multi_PT* atr(32)
    profitPriceLevel := min( (1 - 0.01 * profitPercent_short) * entryPrice, profitTrail)
    profitPriceLevel

shortExit = isShortOpen[1] and (isStopLoss or isProfitCatch or longEntry)
longExit = isLongOpen[1] and (isStopLoss or isProfitCatch or shortEntry)


if (longExit or shortExit) and not(longEntry or shortEntry)
    trigger := na
    profitTrigger := na
    entryPrice := na
    stopLossLevel := na
    profitPriceLevel := na
    // highest := na
    // lowest := na
    // lowest

if testPeriod() and (tradeType == "LONG" or tradeType == "BOTH")
    strategy.entry("long", strategy.long, when=longEntry)
    strategy.close("long", when=longExit)

if testPeriod() and (tradeType == "SHORT" or tradeType == "BOTH")
    strategy.entry("short", strategy.short, when=shortEntry)
    strategy.close("short", when=shortExit)


//If the value changed to invoke a buy, lets set it before we leave
isLongOpen := longEntry ? true : longExit == true ? false : isLongOpen
isShortOpen := shortEntry ? true : shortExit == true ? false : isShortOpen


plotshape(isShortOpen, title="Short Open", color=color.red, style=shape.triangledown, location=location.bottom)
plotshape(isLongOpen, title="Long Open", color=color.green, style=shape.triangleup, location=location.bottom)

plotshape(entryPrice ? entryPrice : na, title="Entry Level", color=color.black, style=shape.cross, location=location.absolute)
plotshape(stopLossLevel ? stopLossLevel : na, title="Stop Loss Level", color=color.orange, style=shape.xcross, location=location.absolute)
plotshape(profitPriceLevel ? profitPriceLevel : na, title="Profit Level", color=color.blue, style=shape.xcross, location=location.absolute)
plotshape(profitTrigger[1] ? isProfitCatch : na, title="Profit Exit Triggered", style=shape.diamond, location=location.abovebar, color=color.blue, size=size.small)
plotshape(trigger[1] ? isStopLoss : na, title="Stop Loss Triggered", style=shape.diamond, location=location.belowbar, color=color.orange, size=size.small)

plot(ma, title="MA 16", color=color.yellow)
plot(ema, title="EMA 7", color=color.blue)

Published by ChaoZhang on the FMZ strategy square · last modified 2023-12-19. Collected in the Quant Trading Vault. Unvalidated research: re-test with your own data and costs before trusting it.

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